The Data

Cases and Deaths: data 

Intensive Care Unit (ICU): data

Left Axis

Cases: Daily number of reported COVID cases in the state, averaged over a 14 day period to smooth out the results. 

COVID ICU: Daily number of patients in the ICU that tested positive for COVID.

Max ICU: Daily ICU beds in the state that exist and are staffed. 

ICU data has been manually shifted to the left by 2 weeks - the approximate time it can take to end up in the ICU after testing positive. 

Right Axis 

Deaths: Daily deaths that were attributed to COVID (there is no shortage of controversy about how deaths are attributed to COVID), averaged over a 14 day period to smooth out the results. 

Death data has been manually shifted to the left by 3 weeks, and the axis scale has been set, such that the case and death peaks of the 2020/2021 boundary align. This allows for relative comparisons throughout the pandemic. 

A Few Notes 

Deaths are placed on a separate scale because of how fewer deaths than cases there are. Certain data are shifted to the left so that peaks align on the graph, if indeed the trends rise together. 

Early in the pandemic, the deaths trended above cases when compared to the middle of the pandemic. This is most likely due to the lack of widespread testing available early on, reducing the number of reported daily cases. Later, we see the opposite effect. 

More recently, in California, the deaths are not spiking along with cases as they were before. The third wave occurred after vaccines had been offered for months. It would seem that many of those in the highest risk in society have either survived COVID and possess some amount of immunity, received a vaccine and possess some amount of immunity, or have died. It is not entirely surprising to see the deaths no longer climbing as they have in the past. 

Keep in mind that COVID ICU patients are not necessarily at the hospital because of COVID. They have tested positive at the ICU. It is likely that ICU patients will trend upward whenever cases trend upward. 

The gap between COVID ICU and Max ICU does not necessarily mean there are available beds. That concern is best viewed at the hospital level, not state. However, this does give a sense of the overall picture in the state. 

You will hear the phrase "breakthrough cases" a lot in the media, meaning that vaccinated people are contracting COVID. But the original stated 'efficacy' of the vaccines was never 100% - closer to 90%. With that, it shouldn't be surprising to witness many positive cases among the vaccinated. 

And finally, the average influenza deaths per day is approximated in California based on CDC data across the USA, for several years prior to the COVID pandemic. One could argue that flu deaths have been underreported compared to COVID deaths, as hospitals have been testing almost all ICU patients for COVID upon arrival. Comorbidity CDC data can be found here, suggesting roughly half of COVID deaths also had the flu. However, there is no agreed-upon method to adjust COVID/flu death counts. The label is added to the lower right of the graph to compare COVID daily deaths with the average past influenza daily deaths. Can this single metric be used as an overall acceptable risk posture for society? 

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